ACUS01 KWNS 281949
SWODY1
SPC AC 281947

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe
gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will
continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower
Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of
Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight.

...20Z Update...
Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into
East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These
areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further
destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the
outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The
corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central
Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints
are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms
should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the
mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens.

..Wendt.. 12/28/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/

...East TX to AL/GA...
A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet
max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become
negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this
evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to
lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of
LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening
across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This
will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE
values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant
severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing
structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS.

The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the
low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the
evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon
through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an
upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT
after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked
tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region,
with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms.

Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less
low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat.
Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential
and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 081245
SWODY1
SPC AC 081244

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across
parts of the Ohio Valley today.

...Ohio Valley...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently extends from western ND southwestward through western/central WY. This shortwave is expected
to progress quickly eastward throughout the day, moving across the
Great Lakes and reaching the Northeast by early tomorrow. In
response, the surface low currently over central OK is forecast to
rapidly translate northeastward through the Mid MS and OH Valleys,
moving along the leading edge of low-level moisture advection.
Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector
preceding this low will help moisten the low- to mid-levels enough
to support limited buoyancy, particularly as mid-level temperatures
cool. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be
augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and more mesoscale
lift near the surface low. The resulting combination of lift and
buoyancy should support deeper convective structures capable of
lightning production. Most likely time frame for these deeper storms
is between 21Z to 04Z, with the highest coverage anticipated over
the Middle and Upper OH Valley.

Strengthening mid-level flow is also expected, with a belt of 100+
kt 500-mb winds spreading across the region after 21Z. This could
result in rotation and potentially some hail production within any
deeper, more persistent updrafts. However, the scant buoyancy is
expected to limit the number and duration of any deeper updrafts,
with the overall severe potential remaining low as a result.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/08/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 091250
SWODY1
SPC AC 091248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across
the Mid-South region.

...Synopsis...
Broadly cyclonic flow aloft, with several embedded shortwave
troughs, is expected across the northern CONUS today. Largely zonal
flow is anticipated across the southern CONUS, with negligible
height changes. Recent surface analysis shows an expansive area of
high pressure associated with a dry, continental airmass covering
much of the central and eastern CONUS. A weak frontal boundary is in
place from the TX Coastal Plains northeastward across the Southeast
States into NC, between the cooler and dry airmass to its north and
the modified Gulf airmass to its south. A slow southward progression
of this front is anticipated throughout the day, with this front
likely extending from southern GA westward along the Gulf Coast into
South TX by 12Z Monday.

...Arklatex into the Mid-South...
Modest warm-air advection across the frontal zone mentioned in the
synopsis is contributing to showers and isolated thunderstorms
across Arkansas this morning. 12Z LZK sounding sampled the airmass
supporting these showers and thunderstorms well, with a notable warm
nose contributing to scant elevated buoyancy above about 850 mb. The
warm-air advection is expected to persist over the region for at
least the next several hours, while it gradually shifts eastward and
weakens. This will support the potential for isolated thunderstorms
this morning from the Arklatex eastward into the Mid-South, with the
overall thunderstorm potential diminishing with eastern extent.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/09/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 101247
SWODY1
SPC AC 101245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across
southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas tonight.

...TX/OK/AR...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough off
the southern CA/Baja CA coast. This feature is forecast to progress
quickly east-northeastward throughout the day, traversing the Southwest/northern Mexico and reaching the southern Plains by
tomorrow morning. Airmass ahead of this feature across the southern
Plains is currently cool and dry, with the moist airmass still
offshore. Mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave will lead
to some modest airmass modification, with upper 50s/low 60s surface
dewpoints potentially reaching the TX Hill Country/central TX by
tomorrow morning. Even with these moistening low levels, warm
mid-level temperatures will preclude buoyancy and deep convection
across much of the TX Coastal Plain.

Greater thunderstorm potential is anticipated farther north in
corridor from the Edwards Plateau into southeast OK and western AR
about 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Here,
aforementioned mass response and associated strengthening of the
low-level southwesterly flow will lead to moderate to strong
low-level warm-air advection and the development of modest elevated
buoyancy (generally above 800-750 mb). Isolated thunderstorms will
be possible as early as this afternoon across southeastern OK and
western AR. Persistent warm-air advection will likely contribute to
a continued potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region
throughout the evening. This persistent warm-air advection will also
help support the development of modest buoyancy into TX as mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching shortwave. Resulting
buoyancy combined with increasing large-scale ascent should result
in addition isolated thunderstorm development from north TX into the
Edwards Plateau, largely after 06Z. Limited buoyancy should keep the
severe potential low throughout the period.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/10/2025

$$
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